The War Gazette
Dispatches from this war · click a report for the full story
Press Run Monte Carlo to fight the war many thousands of times with the current scenario.
New game setup
Per country: starting government, stability, strength, technology and subject status. For the whole war: creative branches, AI drive, randomness and the latest end. Settings go into scenario codes and Monte Carlo runs.
Start date
Starting later replays history (every turning point takes its real outcome) up to that month, then the war is free.
World
Combatants and alliances
"Decided by events" leaves entry to the turning points. Any other choice overrides them from the chosen month. Starting values set war support, army strength and food on day one.
Fronts
Speed scales the monthly drift and every battle's effect on that front; start offset moves the August 1914 line (+ = Central Powers ahead).
What this is
This is a model with judgement-based odds, not a forecast and not a verdict. Each month of a run, the turning points whose window is open and whose conditions hold are resolved by chance using probabilities that research agents estimated from the historians cited below; slow forces (war-weariness, casualties, blockade and hunger, the U-boat war, the American build-up, front drift and the risk of collapse) run as simple monthly equations. Change the odds and the war changes: that is the point.
Every probability has a stated reasoning and a plausible range (shown in Odds). They are estimates that historians would argue about. Fronts are schematic.
Works cited
Model calibration and data
Historical borders: historical-basemaps by André Ourednik (GPL-3.0; the simplified map here is a derivative under the same licence). Coastlines: Made with Natural Earth. Fine tiles: Voronoi cells cut inside those province borders (no further boundary data). Front lines and places: hand-compiled, schematic. Built with D3.